OK, I figured out what's going on: my test Zimbra machine is hosting users at
user@subdomain.domain.com, but the mail being migrated is from
user@domain.com. To Zimbra, they are (correctly) two different users.
Then, for whatever reason, Zimbra does not get the recipients from the mail in the Sent folder for its display in the "To" column as one might think. Instead, it seems to just display the first email address that does not belong to the account owner.
If I access the mail store via Thunderbird / imap, then the Sent folder's "To" column displays the actual recipients. This is what I would expect of Zimbra, too. No matter who sent an email, they are still not the recipients!
To me, it's a bug. One workaround is to append the following to the imapsync command:
--regexmess 's/user\@domain/user\@subdomain\.domain/g'
-Joel